UNDERSTANDING THE 2019 FEDERAL ELECTION RESULTS AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE

In hindsight, the Coalition’s win on May 18 should not have been a surprise. As numerous media commentators are now pointing out, Bill Shorten was not well liked, his policies made the ALP a big target for criticism and fear-mongering from a range of non-Labor sources and the election wasn’t a defacto referendum on Australia’s climate change policies, regardless of how much activists wanted it to be so.

The most obvious conclusion to draw from the election is that voters readily differentiate between state and federal issues. Labor was hoping the low Coalition vote in the most recent Victorian and West Australian elections would be reflected in federal voting intentions. This didn’t happen and instead voters in those two states assessed the policies and personalities of the various parties and decided to maintain the status quo.

It’s clear that climate change was not the issue that Labor, the Greens and GetUp! were telling us it was. In Queensland, the ALP was devastated electorally because voters put jobs above climate change. In Tony Abbott’s seat, while ‘independent’ Zali Steggall may have campaigned on climate-related issues, voters are more likely to have decided that, after 25 years and with no prospects of Abbott returning to the ministry, it was time for a change.

GetUp! also had a dismay result. They focused on seven Coalition seats and only one of these seats changed hands – in Warringah, Tony Abbott lost for reasons that I believe had nothing to do with climate change and not because Warringah voters suddenly changed from being blue-ribbon conservative Liberal supporters to green activist supporters.

And let’s not forget the hypocrisy of Getup! and other losers in this election. Their national director said that the election results were disappointing ‘as it shows fear campaigns have successfully divided us’, yet GetUp! and various green groups based their own climate change campaigning on fear – we only have 10 years to save the planet!

The union movement can take no joy from Saturday’s results. Not only did their hand-picked man Bill Shorten lose and announce his retirement as opposition leader but, out of the 16 seats they targeted around Australia, 15 of those seats remain unchanged.

Still on climate, according to The Australian, 14 independent candidates signed a climate change pledge under the heading ‘Independence Day’. Only 3 of the 13 were successful – Steggall who as stated above almost certainly didn’t win on her climate change policies; Andrew Wilkie who was going to win anyway because of his personal popularity; and Rebekha Sharkie who also was a sitting member, up against Alexander Downer’s daughter in a country where the promise of political dynasties generally do not attract a great deal of support – e.g., Hanna Beasley failed to win her WA seat in spite of her father’s high profile as the state’s governor and his long political history.

There were other issues. The Australian reported on a swing against Labor in outer Sydney seats where voters had voted against same sex marriage at the referendum in 2017.

Quadrant magazine suggested 11 important reasons why the ALP lost the election. You can make up your own mind on the actual or relative importance of each of these reasons but here they are for your edification:

11. Bob Brown’s motor convoy from Tasmania to the Galilee Basin in April to protest the Adani mine

10. Shorten’s offer to public broadcasters of massive bribes to guarantee their support

9. The shredding of Israel Folau’s $4 million rugby contract for quoting the Bible’s disapproval of homosexuality

8. The Tasmanian Parliament’s decision in April to drop the sex of babies from birth certificates

7. Clive Palmer

6. The birth of royal baby Archie to Meghan and Prince Harry on May 6

5. As a slogan, “Real action on climate change” turned out to be a loser

4. The children’s climate marches

3. Taking the politics of social division as his key to The Lodge, Shorten set out to divide voters by age

2. His revival of once-dormant class warfare

1. Shorten’s most divisive trump card: women

If you’re curious about any of these issues, read the full article here - https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/qed/2019/05/eleven-reasons-why-bill-shorten-blew-it/ (I hope it’s not protected by a paywall!).

WHAT TO DO ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE

Human-caused climate change is real. It’s a problem that has to be addressed so that global levels of atmospheric CO2 are reduced, but we still have several decades before it’s too late (and even if we do nothing, human beings have a wonderful propensity to adapt!).

The problem for Australia is that we produce about 1.4% of global CO2 emissions. With atmospheric CO2 levels increasing by about 4 parts per million every year, we’re responsible for 0.056 parts per million, with developing countries adding between 1.6 and 2.4 parts per million each year. In other words, Australia could radically change its economy overnight and go carbon free tomorrow, but our CO2 savings would be swamped by the increased emissions from China alone within 19 days! So spending between 200 billion and one trillion dollars (depending who you want to believe) is a severe waste of our taxpayer money.

But Australia is a rich country and there is support for us doing our fair share to help combat what is a global problem of which we are part. So what do we do?

Contrary to what some climate change commentators claim, we still don’t have the technological solutions needed to allow the world to go carbon free while still providing energy to a world where a billion people still live in poverty and another 2 or 3 million are desperate to raise their standards of living. Yes, we can generate electricity cheaply with renewable solar and wind but we still need batteries or pumped hydro or some other way of storing that energy in a way that will provide dispatchable, non-intermittent, affordable and industrial-scale energy. Regardless of what the activists say, such technologies simply do not exist (with the possible exception of nuclear power but it remains expensive and socially unpopular in Australia).

So, Australia is rich, we’re contributing to a global problem and we should be doing our fair share. I believe we should radically change the way we’re spending taxpayer money in Australia and redirect most of it into finding and developing the technologies the world still lacks if we are to become a carbon-free world. We should therefore be putting our money into the CSIRO, our universities and private industry to undertake the R&D and commercialisation on these needed new technologies.

We can do no bigger favour to the citizens of developing countries and to the entire world than to use our brains and imagination to find the technological solutions to their and our problems. Throwing more money at rooftop solar or even large solar farms located hundreds of kilometres from infrastructure and with no nearby industries wanting to use such energy is inefficient and just plain stupid.

 If we really want to save the planet, we have to think globally and develop new energy-related technologies that we can sell or give to a world desperate for effective solutions to the problems of climate change.